Las Cruces, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

168
FXUS66 KLOX 122059
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/906 AM.

Temperatures will increase each day into mid-week, resulting in
widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk Tuesday through Thursday.
Monsoonal moisture moving into the area will add to the
discomfort, bringing shower and thunderstorm potential each day,
highest in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/139 PM.

A hot and muggy week expected as an upper level high over the
northern plains tops out around 600dam, and is also favorably
placed to import tropical moisture from Mexico. PW`s peak tonight
and Monday around 1.5" and slowly fall the remainder of the week
but remaining as high as 1.35" Thursday. The best chance for any
precip reaching the ground remains today and Monday but can`t rule
out a few drops through mid week. And there also remains a 10-20%
chance of thunderstorms through that time, but the best chance of
those would be in the mountains. So far rain amounts have been
mostly non-measurable but as much as 0.02 has fallen along the
Central Coast.

The heat and humidity will be the biggest concern this week with
temperatures peaking on Wed. Models continue to indicate a
significant offshore trend to the east, with actual gradients
possibly 1-2mb offshore, effectively delaying the typical cooling
sea breeze and providing an additional heating source in addition
to the strong high aloft. For this reason there is high
confidence that Extreme Heat Watches will become Warnings on
Tuesday for most areas except possibly along the immediate coast
and continuing through Thursday, though there is a 20-30% chance
that warnings will extend to the coast as well, especially the
Santa Barbara South coast where hot and strong Sundowners are
expected to peak Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, possibly bringing
temperatures at the beach into the 90s with very warm overnight
temperatures as well. Current projections indicate a 30-40%
chance of 110 degrees in the western San Fernando Valley as well
as the southern Salinas Valley on Wednesday and a 60-80% chance of
95 or higher in Downtown Los Angeles. Given the extreme heat and
humidity it`s highly recommended to complete outdoor activities as
early as possible.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/158 PM.

High pressure will begin to slowly weaken Thursday as a low
pressure system moves into the Pac NW. In addition, onshore flow
will return much earlier in the day bringing temperatures back
down to within a few degrees of normal in most areas by Friday.

However, one factor to keep a close eye on will be the next
tropical system off the coast of Mexico this weekend. While the
storm is expected to weaken considerably as it moves northwest,
there is a chance of another tropical moisture surge across the
area. Models are indicating PW`s increasing again to around 1.5"
as early as Saturday and remaining high into early next week. At
the very least there will be some increasing mid level clouds
along with higher humidities. But also can`t rule out isolated
showers and/or thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to remain
within a few degrees or normal, but the increase in humidity could
lead to an increase in heat risk. And there will likely be some
increase in south swells as well.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1742Z.

At 1721Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was was 1700 ft. The top
of the inversion was at 3200 ft with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY and KPRB.

Moderate confidence in the remaining TAFs. Mid and high clouds
will likely continue to disrupt the marine layer cloud formation
through tonight, and any cigs that do form are likely to be
patchy and scatter and reform frequently later tonight into Mon
morning.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of no
MVFR cigs forming late tonight into Mon morning, and if any do
form they may bounce between BKN015 and BKN250. High confidence
that any east wind component will be below 6kt.

KBUR...Generally high confidence in TAF. There is a 10%-20%
chance of brief OVC008-015 cigs 12Z-16Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...12/115 PM.

For the outer waters, winds and seas are largely expected to be
below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Tuesday, then
there is a 50%-60% chance of SCA winds and seas developing
Tuesday night and continue through Thursday night or Friday
morning. This will be followed by conds below SCA levels Friday
afternoon and Friday night.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, mainly light
winds are expected through Tuesday morning, but winds and/or seas
will begin to increase to SCA levels Tuesday afternoon and
persist (60% chance) through Thursday night. Conds should then
drop below SCA levels late Thursday night through Friday night.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conds are
expected to remain below SCA levels through the forecast period,
except for a 60% chance of SCA wind gusts over the western
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.

Monsoonal moisture is expected to push over the coastal waters
during the next couple of days. As a result, there is a very small
non-zero chance (10%) of a thunderstorm over the coastal waters
through Tuesday. Any thunderstorm that develops could produce
dangerous cloud-to-ocean lightning.

&&

.BEACHES...12/119 PM.

A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal
waters through this week. With this longer period swell, the
potential for larger surf and a greater risk for rip currents will
continue.

Evening high tides are expected to increase this week with Monday
expected to be the highest tide of 7.1 to 7.7 ft above MLLW.
There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding this week
with the evening high tides and south swell. One thing that will
need to be watched late this week into the weekend will be the
potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential
tropical cyclone over the eastern Pacific.

In addition, a non-zero chance of thunderstorms will be possible
along the beaches at times into Tuesday (around a 10% chance
overall). Any thunderstorms that develop could produce dangerous
cloud-to-ground lightning. For more information, please refer to
the Beach Hazard Statement.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
      Thursday evening for zones
      38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
BEACHES...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox